Thursday, July 23, 2009

Half full, half empty

Here is another of those "half empty, half full" charts that the housing market has been producing recently.

If you are of a pessimistic persuasion, on a year-on-year basis gross mortgage lending is down almost 50 percent. An optimist, however, would point to the recent upward trend in lending, which definitely suggests the beginning of a recovery.

3 comments:

  1. If you adjust your graph to include, say, 15 years or more of data the depth of the decline in mortgage lending will be more apparent. I suspect it would show a rise and then the current fall.

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  2. And when interest rates go to where they should be given QE and other UK commitments????

    I look for a second phase of 15 - 25% house price falls.

    The time to buy is at maximum interest rate levels. You know you can therefor afford the long term.

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  3. One could use the seasonal argument to account for it, but its such a pathetic attempt to go higher, I don't think I'll bother.

    I'm not a bottom picker either.

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