In order for the overall p/e of the index to realign, the estimate made by Onassis (now Full Circle asset management) was for a fall to 3200 - 3500 range.
That call was made well over a year ago. Looked left-field at the time, but these days it looks a good shout...
I'm going to be optimistic and say 3500 to 3800. Maybe I'll go down to ladbrokes and put some money on it. Seems a better bet than putting it in the FTSE right now.
The FTSE is down almost 8 percent today, and it is down 32 percent from its 12 month high.
In order for the overall p/e of the index to realign, the estimate made by Onassis (now Full Circle asset management) was for a fall to 3200 - 3500 range.
ReplyDeleteThat call was made well over a year ago. Looked left-field at the time, but these days it looks a good shout...
The general rule is that shares underperform under a Labour government.
ReplyDeleteErgo, I'd expect the FTSE 100 to be back at 3,500 or so by May 2010.
The traditional rule of thumb is that they drop 70-90% during a big depression.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be optimistic and say 3500 to 3800. Maybe I'll go down to ladbrokes and put some money on it. Seems a better bet than putting it in the FTSE right now.
ReplyDeleteAnon: "The traditional rule of thumb is that they drop 70-90% during a big depression."
ReplyDeleteExactly which big depressions were used to form that rule of thumb?
The bottom reading is not a lot of help to the average investor.
ReplyDeleteWait for a live cross on the 100,50 and 20 day moving averages to show a new bull market has begun.
I'll guess he meant (i) US 1930s, (ii) NASDAQ 2001 and (iii) Nikkei 1990s.
ReplyDeleteProbably a few banana republics you could throw in like Argentian and Indonesia.
Nick
"In order for the overall p/e of the index to realign, ...": but stuff overshoots.
ReplyDelete"I'll guess he meant (i) US 1930s, (ii) NASDAQ 2001 and (iii) Nikkei 1990s."
ReplyDeleteAnd also the 1970's debacle - it's best to avoid thinking only in nominal terms.