Thursday, July 2, 2009

Recovery killer

It goes up, then down, and then back up again.

One thing is for sure, if the price of oil continues to rise, it will be destroy any prospect of an economic recovery.

9 comments:

  1. I noticed petrol at the pump is £1.08 per litre in places ... thats higher than during the last peak isn't it?

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  2. I vague remember paying £1.14....

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  3. Its supposed to go up you silly bint you; trillions of gratis USD is printed and used to pile the stuff up in tankers.

    Cant have any of that pesky deflation making cost of living lower for the plebes and the wogs!

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  4. Careless talk costs livesJuly 2, 2009 at 9:48 AM

    My Bruv told me a story yesterday. He said he was down the West Country and chatting to a local there. The local said there was several full oil tankers parked up just off Plymouth or Falmouth, sitting there waiting for the price to go up before they unloaded.

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  5. Oil has caused past recessions it just could be that this one is mostly due to the oil price spike last year.

    Oil production peaks --> price spike --> recession --> oil price collapse --> some recovery --> another oil price spike --> deeper recession --> oil price falls again.

    It will get alot worse as oil fields exhaust and oil production declines.

    In 1965 for every barrel used 5 were discovered now for every 5 used only one is discovered.

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  6. @Anon 20:13; Surely you're not suggesting these spikes are driven by supply and demand? Supply is as high as it has ever been, demand has dropped with the recent crisis and is still dropping. It's all about speculators storing crude in tankers in order to jack up the price until they run out of tankers. Look at the Baltic Dry Index; while exports are cliff-diving just about everywhere except to China, shipping is on the rise. Why would this be, unless the demand for shipping is for use as storage?

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  7. Anon @ 20:30.
    1) Demand in the west may have fallen back. There is a whole emerging and developing world that want the lifestyle that we advertise, including cars and plastics. Furthermore the supply is past peak and starting to droop.

    2) The Baltic Dry Index reflects that massive ongoing importation of commodities such as copper, by the Chinese. Once they are fully stocked I guess this will fade. In their shoes, I'd rather have metals than (devalued) dollars.

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  8. I reckon the main problem here is that people don't seem to understand that a government has NO money of its own. All of the money a government spends comes from the citizens it represents, either present in taxes or future in borrowing.

    So, a Government which is making a show of spending money is in fact arrogantly spending your money for its purposes, and hoping that you the citizens are too stupid to see what its game is. This is the dilemma we have now, especially with a massive proportion of the population dependent on state handouts.

    The cure is going to be to cut Government outgoings and taxes and drastically reduce the number of things Government does to the very few things that it alone can do well so that the common citizen can build up wealth easily. Drastic cuts to benefits, especially benefits to people who have never contributed to the State, need imposing as soon as possible, partly to save funds, partly to motivate the dole-scum to work, and partly to make Britain look like something other than the Promised Land for illegal immigrants.

    Oh, and I'd ask the mainstream parties to remember this: they don't have a choice in cutting spending, and they don't have a choice in their immigration policy. If they don't do the necessary, the BNP will do it for them...

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  9. Careless Talk Costs LivesJuly 5, 2009 at 3:45 AM

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine/print

    "Between 2003 and 2008, the amount of speculative money in commodities grew from $13 billion to $317 billion, an increase of 2,300 percent. By 2008, a barrel of oil was traded 27 times, on average, before it was actually delivered and consumed."

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