Tuesday, November 25, 2008

US housing crash - 22 percent down and counting

The Shiller Case index is down 22 percent from its July 2006 peak. Prices have fallen back to their April 2004 level.

Aren't house prices supposed to always go up. Or did I miss something?


  1. You missed something.

    Your once in a lifetime chance to be saddled with negative equity.

    Of course the presumption of ever rising house prices was a childish one.

  2. CHILDISH??? MOI?????

    Did I get the house price dynamic wrong. You mean they can fall?

  3. House prices can not fall. What we are seeing here is the buying oppertunity of a life time!

    Come sign up for my real estate advantage class and I will teach you how to pick the winners!

    No money for a down payment? No stable income? Let me show you how to become a bank holding company and access federal reserve financing at the cost of the american taxpayer.

    Better hurry and sign up today before our president elect nationalizes everything in his socialist agenda for world equalization. Get your piece of the pie today!

  4. "It's just a correction. Prices will rebound in the spring once the 'problems in the US sub prime market' have worked their way through the system. Don't forget that there's only a limited amount of land available and a lot of pent-up demand. Besides, you're not buying for capital growth, your buying a home. And ... over to you Phil."

  5. "But house prices aren't falling ... by much. Look at Rightmove.com," or "Rental yields will go up to if you pick the right property ... and pay the right price ... yadda-yadda ..."

    Beaming smiles from the presenters of Houses Under the Hammer who, incidentally, never seem to report from the other side of the 'hammer' - the poor sods who bought into their spiel and failed, flooding the market with 'bargains'.

    No - you're not childish, Alice. You seem to hit the nail every time. I hope you can turn that high-powered perception to making some serious profit and a golden future for yourself.

  6. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/britains-going-bankrupt-keep-selling-sterling-14124.aspx

    On second thoughts just concentrate on keeping body and soul together. Get yer tin hat at the ready.

  7. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DWq5nxOWHW0&eurl=http://be-hind-blue-eyes.blogspot.com/

    Spotted on Blue Eyes

  8. So you've stocked the garage with noodles and hidden knives strategically around the home E-K?

  9. I'm an ex cop, Nick. A highly responsible and well respected officer. I was appointed press officer at one major incident in the City and I've worked in civil contingency planning and on numerous exercises. I was also on a riot squad for some years.

    I know exactly how the police and army are geared to work in any large scale crisis and know just how well trained they are so ...

    Of course I have noodles in the garage and knives hidden strategically around the home.

    What do you take me for ? A buffoon ???


  10. E-K

    This is something that deserves detail. How about you post on the likelihood of the Mad Max II scenario - what'll trigger it, what the chavs will do, what the cops will do, and how normal people should prepare.

    I've been reading up on the Argentina collapse and some of the learning points appear to be:

    1. Handguns > Rifles. Society will function but you'll have to fend off occasional robberies
    2. Have independent power sources, including wind up lights and portable cooking gas
    3. Cash is king, and a stash is good in case banks shut
    4. Build personal relationships with people in power or direct access to resources
    5. Store of food
    6. Gold isn't so valuable due to lack of assaying.

  11. a world of mad max, is that the future?

  12. Kevin, Nick

    I have enjoyed your recent exchange of views. Please keep it going. It has me coming back to read my own blog.


  13. Thank you, Alice.

    Nick - I really haven't the foggiest about where this will lead. Something in between my worst estimations and other's best. All I can say is that people are quite different now to those around at the times of the last serious recessions.

    In many ways we are better adapted - our houses are double-glazed and walls insulated, winters are less harsh. In other ways I think that significant numbers of people are more callous and predatory. I know my REAL place in the World and it isn't very high if I'm honest.

    I've no right to claim the standard of living that I have enjoyed(many of you clever people here do) but my one hope is that the coming austerity will have a civilising effect - that good people will take head-on the political classes who seem hell bent on social degeneracy.

    Put simply we can no longer afford the luxury of indulging the wasterels, cheats, idle nor the mindlessly destructive ... not if we are to remain civilised.

    Rule of law must be our primary focus. With this we can bounce back from anything economic - but without ...

    Cometh the hour cometh the man. I see the hour but I see no man.


  14. Just back from Cuba: it can teach us a lot about keeping the peace on the streets when the hard times hit. We should be humble and learn. I have no faith in this current society weathering this crisis well. None. What I see every day is 'scums ahoy!': a rancid, nasty population kept afloat on easy credit and welfare payments. They won't like losing their lolly.

  15. A knife, well used, gets you a gun.

    So one of the Resistance movements used to argue.