Friday, May 2, 2008

The bubble is over in Ulster

Since 1983, house prices in Northern Ireland have increased 8-fold. Either they were giving houses away for free back in 1980s, or the province has just experienced one of the most appalling housing bubbles in history.

Notwithstanding the peace dividend, my money is on the bubble. Low interest rates, smooth taking estate agents, and foolish banks; the three vital ingredients for a speculative mania were all present in Ireland over the last ten or so years.

Well, it is all over now. Prices peaked last summer. Since then, prices have fallen by about 6 percent.


  1. One more ingredient: greedy buyers thinking they can get rich quick without work.


  2. Big deal.

    According to Halifax latest HP survey, average house prices are down 5.3% since last August, not just in N Ireland. That's 9% a year annualised, and the HP crash has only just started ...

    See page 4

  3. Mark,

    I used quarterly data to calculate the chart and the percentage change.

    The NI bubble was the regional leader. I agree, the crash there has only just begin.


  4. Any chance of seeing a similar chart for the Republic?